Meta Reportedly Building ‘Arena’ Prediction Market App

Meta is developing a new prediction market platform called “Arena,” according to a report published Tuesday by The New York Times. The project was reportedly initiated after CEO Mark Zuckerberg instructed a small internal team to begin work on the standalone app, which is designed to compete with established prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.

The report said Arena is being built independently from Meta’s existing family of apps, including Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp. Initially, users would reportedly make predictions using in-app video game-style points rather than real money, though the possibility of introducing real-money wagering at a later stage has not been ruled out.

The current status of the project remains unclear. Meta declined to comment on the report, and the company did not respond to additional requests for comment.

The effort marks a return to an idea Meta explored several years ago. In 2020, the company launched a prediction market product called Forecast. At the time, Meta researchers described a points-based system in which participants earned points upon joining and received regular point refreshes while taking part. A leaderboard tracked users’ overall point profits. Forecast was quietly discontinued in 2022.

Prediction markets have experienced rapid growth in recent years. Research from Pew found that platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi generated more than $23.8 billion in combined trading volume in April alone. The sector’s rising popularity has also attracted major sports betting companies, with both DraftKings and FanDuel launching their own prediction market offerings over the past year.

Meta has a history of entering fast-growing digital markets dominated by rivals. The company introduced Stories on Instagram following the rise of Snapchat and later launched Reels to compete with short-form video platforms such as TikTok and YouTube Shorts. The Times report also noted that Meta is working on additional products, including an AI-focused image application reportedly known internally as “Meta Photos.”