Mystery Polymarket User Bets $400K on Putin Leaving Office in 2026

An anonymous Polymarket user has placed a wager worth more than $400,000 predicting that Vladimir Putin will no longer be Russia’s president by the end of 2026, drawing attention to high-stakes geopolitical betting as regulators continue examining prediction markets.

The bet, first reported by NBC News, was placed by an account using the username ZnotluvuiSamez, which features a Ukrainian flag as its profile image. The account has made several predictions related to Russia and Ukraine, but its largest position is approximately $409,000 in “Yes” contracts on the market asking whether Putin will be out as Russia’s president by December 31, 2026. Around $50,000 of that position was reportedly purchased early Thursday morning.

The prediction runs counter to the broader market, which currently estimates only about a 12% probability that Putin will leave office before the end of 2026. Putin is also not scheduled to face reelection until 2030.

According to NBC News, the bettor could receive as much as $2.5 million if the prediction proves correct when the market settles.

The same account has also placed a $61,000 wager predicting that Ukraine will retake Crimea before the end of this year, another outcome currently assigned roughly a 12% chance by the market.

The account appears to have joined Polymarket in April 2026 and is linked to an X account that has no public posts.

The large wager comes as U.S. regulators continue reviewing how online prediction markets should be governed. Last month, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) opened a public consultation on proposed rules that would prohibit certain prediction contracts considered contrary to the public interest or vulnerable to manipulation through insider information. The proposal specifically targets markets involving wars, terrorist attacks and assassinations, though the rules have not yet been adopted, and it remains unclear whether this Putin-related market would be affected.

Concerns over insider betting have intensified following recent enforcement actions. In April, a U.S. Special Forces soldier involved in a raid targeting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was charged with allegedly using classified government information to place successful Polymarket bets worth more than $400,000. Prosecutors said the individual used confidential information for personal financial gain after placing 13 Venezuela-related wagers shortly before the operation. In a separate case later that month, Kalshi suspended the accounts of three political candidates who had placed bets on the outcomes of their own election races.