Arizona Abortion Ban Reinstatement Boosts Democrats

The recent decision by Arizona’s Supreme Court to allow the reinstatement of a Civil War-era abortion ban has sparked significant political interest. The 1864 law, which makes it a felony to perform an abortion except in cases where the life of the mother is at risk, will now supersede Arizona’s current law, which limits abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy.

This ruling has reinvigorated Democrats’ hopes of using a constitutional amendment, set to appear on the November ballot, to protect abortion access and effectively reverse the court’s decision. The proposed amendment would declare a “fundamental right” to abortion up until fetal viability, or about 24 weeks of pregnancy.

Democrats see this issue as a potential driver of voter turnout among President Joe Biden’s supporters. They believe that voters who support abortion rights, a group more likely to vote for Biden, could be motivated to take to the polls in the key swing state of Arizona. This could potentially boost Democratic turnout in a state that Biden won by a narrow margin in 2020.

The impact of pro-abortion rights ballot measures on voter turnout is not lost on Democrats. They point to Michigan as an example, where voters approved a constitutional amendment guaranteeing the right to abortion in 2022. This move also blocked a 1931 law banning abortion without exceptions from being reinstated. The result was not only the preservation of abortion rights but also the election of Democrats to control of the state legislature, as well as the re-election of Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Attorney General Dana Nessel.

However, the issue of abortion rights is not without its complexities. While Democrats hope that the issue will mobilize their base, it could also have the unintended effect of energizing Republican voters. In states where similar measures have been approved, Republicans have made up a significant share of the votes. For example, in Ohio, more Republicans voted for an abortion referendum in November than Democrats did.

The broader political context adds another layer to this issue. Former President Donald Trump’s recent statement that abortion should be a state issue has raised questions about whether he would support a federal abortion ban. The Biden campaign has seized on this, attacking Trump for his potential support of such a ban. This rhetoric reflects a larger strategy from national Republicans on abortion, allowing them to support the reversal of Roe v. Wade while distancing themselves from decisions made at the state level.

Overall, the Arizona Supreme Court’s decision has injected new energy into the abortion rights debate, setting the stage for a potentially decisive issue in the upcoming election.