Bitcoin $80,000 Odds Surge as Price Tops $70,000

Bitcoin’s chances of reaching $80,000 before the end of 2026 nearly doubled in prediction markets Thursday as the cryptocurrency surged above $70,000, marking a sharp shift in trader expectations.

Polymarket data showed the probability of bitcoin reaching $80,000 by December 31, 2026, climbing 26 percentage points Thursday morning, from roughly 30% to 57%. The move came as bitcoin gained about 12% and traded above $72,000, its highest level since early June.

Expectations for higher price targets also strengthened. The odds of bitcoin reaching $85,000 rose about 22 percentage points to 47%, while the probability of reaching $90,000 stood at 30%. The chances of bitcoin hitting $100,000 were considerably lower at 16%. The Polymarket contract covering the cryptocurrency’s 2026 price target has attracted more than $55 million in wagers.

Bitcoin’s rally followed President Donald Trump’s call for Congress to pass the CLARITY Act, legislation that would create a pro-crypto regulatory framework if enacted. The proposed law would divide regulatory responsibilities between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, with the SEC overseeing investment contract assets and the CFTC supervising digital commodities.

Despite the latest rebound, bitcoin remains down 27% from the beginning of the year, when the cryptocurrency was trading near $89,000.

Thursday’s advance represents a notable recovery following a volatile June and July. Bitcoin fell as low as $58,111 during that period, its lowest level in nearly two years, before reversing course. The latest rally also comes after prediction-market sentiment had turned more bearish. On Wednesday, Polymarket traders assigned just a 31% probability to bitcoin exceeding $80,000 this year, while traders also placed a 75% probability on the cryptocurrency falling below $60,000, according to Benzinga.

SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci told CNBC on Tuesday that bitcoin’s volatility had remained muted after cryptocurrency miners shifted their computing capacity toward artificial intelligence stocks.