Moana 2 Set for $375M Global Box Office, Eyes $1B

Disney’s animated sequel Moana 2 has exceeded all expectations, with projections pointing toward a remarkable $375 million in global box office revenue by the end of this weekend. This strong showing is part of an impressive holiday period for the theatrical industry, where Moana 2 is joined by Wicked, another major hit, making for a record-setting Thanksgiving season. Since its release, Moana 2 has shattered attendance records for both Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday. The film shows no signs of slowing down; in fact, it is accelerating. The movie has expanded its international reach while riding a wave of goodwill from families during the holiday season, ensuring that it dominates the domestic box office as well. As of Friday, Moana 2 was rapidly approaching $200 million in global earnings. Given the long holiday weekend, the movie is on track to surpass $375 million by Monday, with a potential to approach $400 million. With only mild competition from new releases over the next two weeks, Moana 2 has a solid path ahead, particularly as the Christmas season approaches. The movie’s longevity is assured, with repeat viewings likely and an increasing buzz thanks to positive word of mouth. By next weekend, analysts expect Moana 2 to reach between $650 million and $700 million in total revenue, depending on how much it exceeds expectations this weekend and during its first weekdays of December.

While Moana 2 is the dominant force this weekend, Wicked is also performing well, delivering a strong second weekend and climbing the holiday box office ranks. Having already set a record for the best opening weekend ever for a Broadway adaptation, Wicked is now on track to become the highest-grossing musical adaptation of all time in North America. With a projected $260 million in domestic earnings and over $350 million globally by the end of the weekend, Wicked continues to captivate audiences. Despite this, it seems that there is enough room for both Moana 2 and Wicked to thrive. The two films target different audience segments—Moana 2 primarily attracting families, while Wicked appeals to a broader audience, including those seeking a musical experience. Additionally, Gladiator II is also performing strongly, having surpassed $350 million globally, though it serves as counter-programming for adult moviegoers. This diverse slate of films suggests that each can find its niche and succeed in the coming weeks.

Looking ahead, if Moana 2 hits $375 million this weekend, it should maintain strong earnings throughout the week. From Monday to Thursday, the movie is expected to generate an additional $100-150 million globally. This sets the stage for a strong second weekend, where even with a modest 40% drop, Moana 2 could surpass $650 million by next weekend. On the lower end of the spectrum, even if the film sees a front-loaded performance with moderate holds into the Christmas season, it is still expected to cross the $900 million mark by the end of the year. However, Moana 2‘s true potential lies in its ability to maintain momentum through the holidays. A more modest drop-off would push the film past $1 billion in earnings, which is entirely possible given its current overperformance. If Moana 2 continues to exceed expectations, it could ultimately challenge Inside Out 2 for the title of highest-grossing animated film of all time. Currently, Inside Out 2 holds the crown with a staggering $1.698 billion. While Deadpool & Wolverine was a serious contender earlier in the year with $1.338 billion, it still fell short by more than 25%. This leaves the door open for Moana 2 to make a run at the top spot, especially if several of the major Christmas releases—such as Kraven the Hunter—underperform.

Given the film’s impressive performance so far, surpassing the $1 billion threshold now seems inevitable. The bigger question is whether Moana 2 can continue its strong run into the New Year, competing for the top spot in the animated film category. If some of the other holiday films falter, Moana 2 has the potential to surge, particularly as schools let out and families flock to theaters during the Christmas break. Next weekend will be pivotal in determining Moana 2’s long-term trajectory. We will have a clearer sense of the film’s staying power as it faces competition from December’s major holiday releases. If it can maintain its strong momentum through the first week of December, Moana 2 will be well-positioned to close out 2024 as one of the year’s biggest hits. In summary, Moana 2 is not just living up to expectations—it is surpassing them. With a projected $375 million this weekend and a path that could see it cross $1 billion, this sequel is proving to be a box office powerhouse. Whether it can challenge the all-time animated film record will depend on its staying power in the coming weeks, but with its strong domestic and international performance, it’s already set to be one of the year’s top earners.